A recent record-breaking video by a popular Indian YouTuber — CarryMinati — sparked off a battle online. Novelist-turned-DJ Murakami's first-ever radio show 'Stay Home' lifts spirits, helps people beat corona-related blues Music serves as an important motif in Murakami's stories. Target to recoup lost deposits by year end: Prashant Kumar "After the moratorium, it was expected that there would be outflows.
SpiceJet's special flight to take Iran-returned Indians to quarantine facility in Jodhpur The aircraft, which will be used for Sunday's special flight, will be thoroughly cleaned and fumigated upon its return to Delhi and the airline will follow all the protocols for its crew members, the release noted.
The flight will take off at 1. SpiceJet posts highest ever Q1 profit at Rs crore Airline credits these numbers to its ability to bring in capacity, impacted due to grounding of Boeing MAX. Parties bet big on social media, data analytics for poll campaign The Congress, which seems to have learnt its lessons from , is scaling up its operations to challenge the BJP on a front which has been the saffron party's forte.
Infosys to grow at slower pace in FY19; Salil Parekh plans to step up digital play The Bengaluru-headquartered company's profits grew Infosys Q4 results: 11 key takeaways you must know The IT firm posted a Why Gujarat verdict heralds a new BJP 3. It remains a BJP bastion but the result ironically is driven less by saffron and more by a newer strategy. Adani Ports total net sales rise over 31 per cent to Rs 2, Bharti Airtel: Brokerages maintain 'buy' despite fall in profit Both Motilal Oswal Financial Services and IIFL have maintained a 'buy' call on the telecom major after it declared its results for the first quarter.
The MOSFET transistor , integrated circuit s , and microprocessor wrought mind-bending leaps in performance over early vacuum-tube computers. The ever-increasing density of transistors on a chip has enabled computer performance to double approximately every two years. This is known as Moore's Law. Most investors are familiar with the concept of Moore's Law, yet few understand what is happening today.
Even fewer understand the relationship between hardware and software. Today transistor scaling is slowing down, yet we are simultaneously at an inflection point that will accelerate the progress of semiconductors. Others, such as 3D-stacking, heterogenous integration, programmable memory , tiles, and chiplets are picking up where it leaves off. Furthermore, acceleration architectures referred to as "AI chips" above are pushing performance improvements at a blistering speed.
Chips are shifting from general purpose configurations to more application-specific designs with dramatic results. Chiplets will allow many different application-specific subsets to be integrated into a single chip. As AI plays an increasing roll in the design of these semiconductor architectures, the CEO of Synopsys believes that performance will improve an addition 1,x over the next decade.
This will create a cycle of AI designing better chips that will, in-turn, create more powerful AI capable of designing yet even more powerful AI chips. It also seems that software progresses at least as fast as hardware does, at least in some domains.
He documented a 43 millionfold improvement, which he broke down into two factors: faster processors and better algorithms embedded in software. Processor speeds improved by a factor of 1,, but these gains were dwarfed by the algorithms, which got 43, times better over the same period. There is also a non-linear relationship between hardware and software. Hardware improves at an exponential rate, yet software improves at an exponential rate that is orders of magnitude higher than hardware.
This makes software businesses incredibly powerful. They can not only capture this dynamic, but can scale quickly at low in some cases almost zero marginal cost. This dynamic creates economies of scale unlike anything else, often enhanced further by the ability to collect more data.
Though not strictly correlated, better hardware has enabled the creation of larger and more sophisticated AI models. We will likely see a T parameter model, something that seemed like fantasy until recently, before the end of Nvidia updated to show 1T parameter model from Google and 10T parameter model from Alibaba. This is far from the realm of academic discussion; we are seeing exponential increases in the size and sophistication of AI models the real world. The power of AI will extend significantly beyond a subset of software applications.
For example, Google developed an AI model that calculated the structure of nearly every protein expressed by the human genome. It has been called " one of the most significant contributions that AI has made to the advancement of science ". The advent of AI obliges us to confront whether there is a form of logic that humans have not achieved or cannot achieve, exploring aspects of reality we have never known and may never directly know.
At every turn, humans will have three primary options: confining AI, partnering with it, or deferring to it. Yet matters are complicated by the fact that intrinsic value does not scale with model size or hardware performance. AI models typically have very little economic value until they are successfully trained, going from useless to disruptive almost overnight. Risk and reward are skewed to the peripheries. People say 'data is the new oil' offhandedly; few consider how radical a departure from traditional investment norms this will append.
Even the model of a joint-stock corporation itself will have to compete with blockchain-based and software-defined institutions known as DAOs , which themselves may become platforms for AI among other possibilities. It is difficult to find "tech companies" that have true moats, but we will give examples in the next section. Even the present rate of growth will produce impressive results if maintained for a moderately long time. If the world economy continues to grow at the same pace it has over the last fifty years, then the world will be some 4.
Yet the prospect of continuing on a steady exponential growth path pales in comparison to what would happen if the world were to experience another step change in the rate of growth comparable to in magnitude to those associated with the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution If another such transition to a different growth mode were to occur, and it were of similar magnitude to the pervious two, it would result in a new growth regime in which the world economy would double in size about every two weeks.
Such a growth rate seems fantastic by current lights. Observers in earlier epochs might have found it equally preposterous to suppose that the world economy would one day double several times within a single lifespan. Yet that is the extraordinary condition we now take to be ordinary. How exactly does one value a company in this context?
It is, admittedly, extremely difficult. Boeing's planes will not improve 1,x over the next decade. Nor will Exxon's oil or Darden's food. A rotation to companies picked out of the bargain bucket, largely disadvantaged in the epoch of this disruption, is likely to be another short-lived fad.
A tell-tale sign that this "rotation to value" is a fad and not real economic trend derived from a change in interest rate policy is the fact that companies such as Delta Apparel DLA are trading within range of all-time-highs. Perhaps owning a 'value' play that could get wiped out if it refinances its debt burden at a higher interest rate is the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT of the boomer generation.
In this context, it seems difficult to believe that a "rotation out of tech" could be sustainable amid such rapid innovation and growth. In this section, we will look at the empirical evidence and attempt to find our bearings. In contrast to academic dogma about efficient markets, the crux of the matter is that investors both institutional and retail struggle to do adequate due diligence.
The trash needed to be taken out, but Wall Street has called for a complete portfolio eviction that has left valuable heirlooms on the street curb. Factorized comparison of Palantir blue and Peloton red. This is to say, they have bought and sold indiscriminately.
Take for example Palantir and Peloton, both down dramatically from their all-time-highs. Palantir PLTR owns a generalizable platform capable of transforming companies into 'software production entities' that incorporate data into almost every aspect of their operations which can be installed almost overnight. Looking for something a bit more tangible than software and digital assets?
First Solar is the only company outside of Asia that can produce solar panels at significant scale. It does so using a technology that no one else has; First Solar can literally print a solar panel onto a sheet of glass. Skyrocketing prices for polysilicon and the potential reduction of California's rooftop subsidies has weighed on the solar sector. First Solar does not use polysilicon or produce rooftop panels. So what does deserve to be thrown out with the trash?
How about: Vuzix VUZI , which has been promising that huge growth is ' just around the corner ' for over two decades. Why not: Electrameccanica SOLO , which accused Seeking Alpha of being ' an Israeli conspiracy ', used company funds to buy Tesla's and a Lambo , and has still not made any major deliveries despite claiming mass production would begin in Or: NBEV , which has an exciting business model that consists of rolling up unprofitable beverage companies.
A recent interview with Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon summarizes this moment perfectly. One feature of markets is that no one is ever held responsible for falsely predicting a catastrophic crash, but anyone who is overly bullish is swiftly ridiculed. Fund managers have spent the better part of a decade predicting an epic crash with total impunity.
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