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Specifically to trade CL? I would like to know if it works. My one criticism is there is little or no information of the historic probability of a trade working if one or more of the indicators are met, which I find absurd if you are supposed to be trading 'logically'. I am, however, paying particular attention to it because of who Mark Fisher is in the oil market and Paul Tudor Jones gives it a glowing review in the foreword.
I read it. The answer to the question of why there is no historical data is because the system is not too mechanical and backtestable. For instance, the rule of waiting half of the opening range after A point is broken to confirm it is already quite discretionary.
Another one - if price goes nowhere, exit. There's also no explanation how to enter trades when fading failed As. It sounds more like a framework for trading than a mechanical system. It has no edge in itself. Mark says you need to do your own research.
For example, you do research and have some ideas about tomorrow you would like to anticipate, thus you use ACD to guide yourself where to enter and exit. I tried backtesting it years ago, but it returned crappy results. Also, the whole pivot point and "market repeats itself every x days" sounds bullshitty to me.
You are right, there's not a single statistical test showed in the book. If you have a few more bucks to spend, you should think about getting anything written by Toby Crabel. In my opinion those will put send you down a more "logical" path. There's no real difference between the book and articles. I have spent the majority of the last 2 years working on the ACD approach to trading.
I have taken Fisher's method apart and re-built it to suit both index, stock, and currency trading. I have met with Mark and was going to go into business with him and my business partner to start an ACD mentorship program. As many of you know, I run a prop group in Chicago and was getting tired of traders blowing out and losing money. Teaching new guys ACD was a very methodical and disciplined approach to trading.