value investing congress einhorn presentation on gmcr
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If you trade the forex markets regularly, chances are that a lot of your trading is of the short-term variety; i. From my experience, there is one major flaw with this type of trading: h igh-speed computers and algorithms will spot these patterns faster than you ever will. When I initially started trading, my strategy was similar to that of many short-term traders. That is, analyze the technicals to decide on a long or short position or even no position in the absence of a clear trendand then wait for the all-important breakout, i. I can't tell you how many times I would open a position after a breakout, only for the price to move back in the opposite direction - with my stop loss closing me out of the trade. More often than not, the traders who make the money are those who are adept at anticipating such a breakout before it happens.

Value investing congress einhorn presentation on gmcr forex 100 pips

Value investing congress einhorn presentation on gmcr

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Long General Motors GM : Remains an "ugly duckling" due to long investor memories, government ownership overhang and weak Europe division. Bull case: Fixed cost structure improved. Pension risks overblown, unfunded liability may have narrowed by several billion, rising interest rates would help, too. No required pension contributions until at least Balance sheet cleaned up, brand quality improving across the board, improving pricing. Consensus is too low, SAAR may be higher than street.

GM is 1 in China and growing faster than industry. Europe is a problem and should restructure to at least break even by Government stake is an opportunity, not an overhang. US demand is 16M units: Scrap is Ave age is now 11 years, up from 9 a decade ago. Population growth alone is 2M units of annual demand. Recessions cause less vehicles per driver, but it rebounds as economy does.

What should it do with its cash? Government has 50M shares. If Obama is re-elected, he may be willing to sell at a loss. Otherwise, they could still do a large open market buyback instead. This is midcycle, not peak result, so deserves a better multiple. Long Cigna CI : Lots of work. Then you have to understand their non-HMO businesses.

Investors don't like HMOs now. Earnings are hard to predict from Q to Q. Obamacare scares investors. Obamacare: capped profits, risk of financial penalties Bull case: Secular growth, high barriers to entry, big players have scale already. Still, ROE has been strong over time. CI is the best performer in the group. They reprice annually so they always make money. Obamacare is just "a homework problem" that can be analyzed.

PBM is a potential high multiple sale GDL segment is consistent source of earnings despite weak employment trends. International is for multinational corporations' employees living overseas. Trades at 7. You can see further comments from Einhorn on Cigna in Greenlight's Q2 letter. Average sector multiple is 22x. Restaurant business: low barriers to entry, Obamacare brings additional costs since they don't currently provide health care for employees, summer drought affects costs in coming periods.

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Flipboard Link icon An image of a chain link. It symobilizes a website link url. Copy Link. He presented four ideas in different slides along with some lessons he's learned. Sign up for notifications from Insider!

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