I sincerely hope that the matter is sorted out and you all come out of it wiser and financially unscathed. Like you say it sure is a challenge to keep so many countries in the Euro together when times are tough. Most especially with such differences in culture. When I travelled to Europe I found it unreal how you could drive down the road and go from one country to another with such a distinct change in culture, language and landscape.
It must present a challenge to keep the peace and explains how historic war events may have happened from the friction of it all. The plan for unity with the Euro is a great concept to bring Europe together but can it survive?
It was always going to be a challenge with individual governments making their own financial decisions in respect to their country but a single currency attempting to price it all. We currently live in a funny left wing world where governments around the world have significantly increased their own debt in order to reduce the impacts of recession. Whilst to some degree increased government spending has kicked the bucket down the road for the time being the levels of government debt are astonomical even in countries like Germany.
Politicians in order to get votes must maintain current spending levels, however in reality government need to pay back debt, which means cut backs on government spending for all. The problem is everyone has gone on a huge credit binge and now the piper needs to be paid. The countries who have lived in an unsustainable way are about to pay the price. Thanks for this article. You raise a good point. What a great article, and the responses certainly do it justice!
It is an incredible, or at least barely credible action for the authorities to be taking. Cyprus is indeed an interesting country from the point of view of forex. As a forex website owner I am continually having to politely decline rather desperate entreaties from the representatives of forex brokerages based in Cyprus, to get featured on my website.
The wider issue of course is how Europe handles the problem. We are still in a situation of having a very sick global economy, and I feel reactions to perceived threats are certainly likely to be exaggerated for quite some time. To address your subject — the Cyprus issue from a forex traders perspective — I guess the mercenary approach would be to understand that there are likely to be shorting opportunities in currencies generally perceived to be extended, such as the Aussie.
The problem gets to be one of choosing your timescale. There is likely to be a flurry of panicked responses over the coming days, each initiating its own swing or counter swing. This might provide an opportunity on short timeframes five-minute to an hour say if you happen to be at your screen at the time. However, how it moves from one destination to the next is always unclear.
When using prudent risk management with stop losses you can still get stopped out with a loss even with your direction right if it travels erratically. This can happen any time though, even without this situation. Hi Rachel, very good article about the theft that has been planned by Cyprus authorities.
It was disgraceful. What happen in Cyprus shows us, in my opinion, the weakness of the European Union and the Eurozone. Europe was a nice project for many europeans but something is wrong since nearly 10 years, when EU was enlarged and when Euro was created. First, in , EU was enlarged with former communist countries with weak economies. It was the first big mistake. It is a good idea to build an open area in Europe but it needs time to achieve.
Second mistake was to create Euro with countries as different as Greece and Germany in the same area. Eurozone has too many different economic levels and furthermore rich countries as Germany or Netherland are tired to help poorest countries. There is no solidarity. This current crisis might have a positive issue if Europe decides to go ahead and evolves to more unified structure. But euro has to be reformed! This crisis, in opinion, will weaken euro one more time.
In the next few weeks, Eurusd might go down and reach 1. Thank you for the excellent points you raise. Great to have the observations and viewpoint from yourself in France. The fortunes of each country using the Euro are too diverse. There is a loophole in the Cypriot situation that should be explained, and not just passed over as technocratic detail. Russian off shore firms alone have invested Euro 68 Bil in Cypriot banks.
So bank reserves are high when compared to the 10 Bil currently needed, and for which the whole fuss is about. We are led to assume that Cypriot banks are heavily invested in Greek debt. These sustain credit levels to ensure continuity of interest payment on loans. The key to crisis resolution always is in transparency. This singles out the culprits for the public, and gets it realistically involved in devising a frame work for the solutions.
You raise some excellent insights into the Cyprus situation. I agree transparency is the key. In my experience when something falls over that should be thriving, it can be corruption. But I had been slack in remaining on Windows XP for so long so the move to system 7 meant a lot of programs needed upgrading and configuration.
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